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284 Uppsatser om Forecast error - Sida 1 av 19

Bryggor - En studie av bryggors förekomst i publika bolag och påverkan på träffsäkerhet i analytikerestimat av EPS

Previous studies have shown that there is a relationship between voluntary disclosure and analysts' forecast accuracy. However, there has been no research conducted specifically on bridges. Bridges contain information on how components such as price, volume, foreign exchange rates and acquisitions have impacted the financial performance between two periods. The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the usage of bridges in quarterly financial information of companies listed on Nasdaq Stockholm. We provide a descriptive mapping of bridges and find that 30 out of 268 companies are presenting bridges as a part of their voluntary disclosures, with large firms being the most frequent users.

Empiriska växelkursmodeller för den svenska kronan - Är det någon som fungerar?

The forecast ability of four well-known exchange rate models for theSwedish krona is tested in this thesis. The models that are tested arethe purchase power parity, the real interest differential model, thesticky-price model and a productivity model. In addition to thebenchmark, the random walk, they are also compared to each other.They are all tested on three different horizons one quarter, two quartersand four quarters. The mean squared Forecast error criteria and thedirection of change criteria are used for evaluation of the forecastability. Only in a couple of cases are the forecast ability of thetheoretical based models significant better than the random walk..

Prognostisering av utrustningar på Volvo Wheel Loaders

Volvo in Arvika produces wheel loaders, and the production is based on forecasts. When a machine is ordered, the customer can choose what type of equipment he or she wants, and these equipments are also made forecasts on. This is made by giving each equipment an estimated procentual usage that shows how many of the machines that will use this option. Today two people are working with the forecasts, planer A in Eskilstuna and planer B in Arvika. Planer A makes a forecast based on the historical outcome and planer B then makes adjustments of this based on how many options that are ordered.

Ledningsprognosers egenskaper - Hur påverkar de mängden Earnings Management

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Earnings Management (EM) and certain characteristics of management forecasts, among a sample of Swedish listed companies. The forecast characteristics studied are: 1) Forecast venue: How explicitly is the forecast presented? 2) Forecast precision: How detailed is the estimated number? 3) Forecast measure: Which measure(s) are forecasted? We use a sample of 68 annual management forecasts, obtained from year-end reports between the years 2007-2011. EM during the forecasted year (2008-2012) is estimated using the cross-sectional modified-Jones model. The forecast characteristics are then related to the degree of EM during the forecasted period.

Att prognostisera avverkningspotentialen i privatskogsbruket

For the actors in the Swedish forest industry, it is important to have the ability to forecast the state in the privateforests. The information that comes out of the forecasts will be the base for the activities strategic direction.The aim in this exam is to survey what information that is present today as basis for forecast calculation, andeven to examine what other possibilities it might have in the future.From a limited geography and out of different time perspective forecast the felling potential in the privateforestry.With the word felling potential means regeneration felling and thinning. The exam will answer the questions:What information is needed to build a relevant forecast model?Is this information available today?Is there information to buy that would improve the forecast model?The result of this exam will be presented in form of a ”case study” showing the opportunities in the market tocreate a forecast calculation of felling potential in the private forestry within the Forest Owners’ AssociationMellanskogs wood-area Dalarna..

Utvärdering och uppdatering av typkurvor

The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate and update load curves for Fortum Distribution AB. Theload curve method is a tool used to forecast the strain of an electric grid. The method is based oncustomer annual energy consumption, outdoors temperature as well as customer category. Theload curve method was established by Svenska Elverksföreningen at the start of the nineties andfocus was put on standardizing annual energyconsumption, in order to make the method usableacross the nation. Present consumption patterns have changed since the original load curves wereproduced, which leads to a need to update the load curves.The work began with an update of present load curves according to recommendation taken fromanother earlier thesis.

Något om misstag inom avtalsrätten : särskilt om gränsdragningen mellan förklaringsmisstag och motivvillfarelse

According to Swedish contract law, a mistake in contract can be categorized as either an error concerning the content of the agreement or an error in motive. An error concerning the content of the agreement could be described as a divergence between a party?s intent and his declaration, while an error in motive is a mistake about the reasons why a party would like to agree to the contract. The borderline between these two types of mistakes is based on Savigny?s theories on echt (error in motive) and unecht (error in content) mistakes.

Klimat för felhantering och Etiskt ledarskap : Felhantering i revision: En undersökning av ett tänkbart samband mellan etiskt ledarskap och felhanteringsklimat.

AbstractFor an audit organization, it is important to work toward maintaininga high error climate to handle errors in an efficient and propermanner. This means that it is important for accountants to worktowards high quality of work, reduce and manage errors that mayoccur in their daily work. Therefore, auditors must know how tohandle errors in order to improve efficiency, which can be affected byhow leadership is exercised in the workplace. The error climatemeans being able to act in a manner which will ensure a good jobtowards customers but also within the internal operations.The ethical leadership may thus have an impact on how auditorshandle the error environment both internally and externally. It is veryimportant for customers to have confidence in the business but also tomaintain the order and the general rules of society for accountingfirms.My study aims to show the thinkable relationship between ethicalleadership and the error climate.

En flashestimator för den privata konsumtionen i Sverige med hjälpvariablerna HIP och detaljhandeln ? En tidsserieanalys med hjälp av statistikprogrammet TRAMO

In this essay we aim at finding an appropriate flash estimator of the quarterly Swedish private consumption (PK). With the aid of the statistics program TRAMO we study if monthly data from the consumer survey (HIP) and retail industry (DH) can be used in a transfer function model (TFM) to forecast PK. In the work of assessing the state of the market and the business trend, fast information from the national accounts is needed for making decisions for the economic politics in Sweden. A way to speed up the information process is to use leading economic indicators to asses this development. Another way to get information faster is to use a flash estimate.

Är det lönsamt att ta hänsyn till temperatursvängningar? : En fallstudie om prognostisering på Karlstads Energi

Being able to predict the future had been an invaluable competitive advantage for any corporation. Forecasting is a vital part of any business, hence a good forecast allows enterprises to invest in a beneficial way. However, there are several ways to prepare forecasts and the forecast methodology can vary. An industry that is dependent on forecasts is the energy industry. By predicting consumers' energy consumption, Swedish energy companies can hedge on the Nordic power market Nord Pool.

Prognostisering av räntabilitet på eget kapital - Förbättras möjligheten att prognostisera räntabilitet på eget kapital om hänsyn tas till earnings management

Prior studies have shown that earnings management can be used either to inform or to mislead investors about the future performance of a company. However, few studies have examined the impact of earnings management on forecasting return on equity (ROE). The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the ability to forecast next year's ROE is improved when taking earnings management, measured as discretionary accruals, into account. This is examined by comparing a forecast model that takes the magnitude of discretionary accruals into consideration with a model that does not. The study is based on companies that were listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during 2002-2012.

Ternära koder för variabelt felskydd

Ternary codes for unequal error protection is a part of a communication system where different parts of the information to be transmitted can receive different amount of error protection. There are a lot of applications where the channel conditions fluctuate so that reliable or acceptable communication can not be guaranteed. Regardless whether the fluctuations of the channel are intentional or not the idea is to let the coderate decrease so that the error correcting capability can increase for the part of the information to be more protected. By using the support, the nonzero positions of the ternary code, a new binary code can be extracted with properties different from the ternary code in the sense of cardinality and minimum Hamming distance. When the channel conditions are good the receiver decodes the message using ternary decisions and receives all information included in the codeword.

Utveckling och utvördering av statistiska metoder för att öka träffsäkerheten hos lokala vindprognoser

Wind is used as an energy source all over the world. To be able to use this effectively, there is a need for as good forecasts and forecast models as possible. One of these models is Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is used to calculate short time forecasts. This model is used here to calculate wind speeds at two different areas in Västra Götaland, Bengtsfors and Vänersborg. There are also wind measurements with SODAR stations for these areas.

Kronandelsrelaskopering, en ny metod för att fastställa gallringsbehov?

In today´s forestry, assessments of needs for thinning are based on basal area measurements. This is an indirect measurement. The approach and the developed assessment tables are based on an assumed production forest, which implies that management proposals in stands that deviate from the basic model may be misleading. Since Walter Bitterlich in 1948 launched the idea of the relascope, several modifications have been developed for different purposes. In common is that all are based on a certain angle measurement principle.

Prognostisering av räntabilitet på eget kapital - En jämförelsestudie av tre regressionsmodellers prognosförmåga applicerat på svenska data

A multivariate cross-sectional model is used in this thesis to proxy for expected earnings and to estimate return on equity for 214 companies over the period 2009-2013, using Swedish data. The model, which has never been tested on Swedish data before, is first confirmed to function as a forecasting model for expected return. Furthermore, the model is evaluated through a comparison with two univariate models based on the assumption that return on equity follows a mean reversion process. Forecast accuracy is calculated as the difference of estimated returns and actual returns. The results show that the univariate models' forecasts are superior to the multivariate model's..

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